A new Toronto mayoral poll shows Mayor Olivia Chow holding a steady lead over Councillor Brad Bradford, even though the city remains split on its overall direction. The survey, released this week, signals a race that has grown noticeably tighter since earlier this year.

The Liaison Strategies Toronto Pulse survey polled 1,000 residents between July 24 and 26. Among decided and leaning voters, Chow sits at 49 per cent, while Bradford trails at 41 per cent. Other candidates combine for 10 per cent support.

Interestingly, these figures closely match Liaison’s early-July results, when Chow also polled at 49 per cent and Bradford stood at 40 per cent. As a result, the race has remained largely stable over the past few weeks.

When undecided voters are included, the numbers shift slightly. Chow holds 39 per cent support overall, Bradford sits at 33 per cent, and other candidates capture 8 per cent. Meanwhile, 20 per cent of respondents remain undecided, leaving room for movement before election day.

City Split on Direction

Perhaps the most striking finding involves how Torontonians view their city’s trajectory. According to the poll, 46 per cent believe Toronto is heading in the right direction, while another 46 per cent disagree. The remaining 8 per cent say they are unsure.

This even split carries real political weight, Liaison principal David Valentin explains. Although Chow’s personal numbers remain stable, a divided public mood gives Bradford an opening to keep narrowing the gap.

Indeed, Chow’s approval rating currently sits at 51 per cent, with 43 per cent disapproving of her performance. Consequently, her support base appears solid, yet not immune to the city’s broader uncertainty about its future.

Valentin notes that this mixed sentiment often shapes municipal races more than personal approval alone. Therefore, Bradford’s campaign may lean heavily on voter frustration with city direction rather than direct criticism of Chow herself.

Bradford Becoming More Defined to Voters

As the campaign progresses, Bradford’s public profile continues to sharpen. His favourability rating has climbed to 31 per cent, up from 29 per cent in the previous poll. At the same time, his unfavourability has also risen, reaching 26 per cent.

Notably, the share of voters unfamiliar with Bradford has dropped from 35 per cent to 31 per cent. This decline suggests he is steadily becoming a more recognizable challenger heading into the final stretch of the campaign.

Valentin points out that rising favourability and unfavourability together often signal growing visibility. In other words, as more voters learn about Bradford, opinions naturally begin to solidify on both sides.

This pattern is common among challengers gaining momentum. However, it also means Bradford must work carefully to convert new awareness into support, rather than simply generating stronger opposition among skeptical voters.

Where Chow Holds Her Strongest Support

Geographic breakdowns reveal where Chow’s advantage remains most pronounced. Across several key areas of the city, she continues to outperform Bradford among decided and leaning voters:

• Downtown: Chow leads 55 per cent to 36 per cent
• North York: Chow leads 52 per cent to 37 per cent
• Scarborough: Chow leads 50 per cent to 41 per cent

These regional numbers suggest Chow’s coalition remains broad, spanning both downtown and suburban areas. Still, Scarborough’s narrower margin hints at where Bradford’s campaign may be finding some early traction.

Overall, the poll paints a picture of a stable but competitive mayoral race. While Chow maintains a clear numerical edge, the city’s divided mood on direction leaves the contest far from settled. As Bradford’s profile continues to grow, the coming weeks will likely determine whether he can close the remaining gap.