A fresh survey confirms the Ontario Liberals poll lead over the Progressive Conservatives, even as Premier Doug Ford’s personal approval continues to crumble. The numbers arrive while his government battles a growing scandal tied to MPP hotel expenses. As a result, Ford now faces one of the toughest political stretches of his premiership.

Liaison Strategies conducted its latest Ontario Political Tracker poll on July 20 and July 21, 2026. Among decided and leaning voters, the Liberals sit at 38 per cent, ahead of the PCs at 33 per cent. The NDP trails behind at 24 per cent. When undecided voters are included, the Liberals hold 33 per cent, the PCs stand at 29 per cent, and the NDP sits at 21 per cent.

Meanwhile, the premier’s own numbers tell an even sharper story. Ford’s approval rating has fallen dramatically, and the trend line is not encouraging for his party heading into the next stretch of his term.

Ford’s Approval Rating Hits a New Low

The Ontario Liberals poll lead is notable, but Ford’s personal numbers stand out even more. According to the survey, 72 per cent of respondents disapprove of his performance as premier. Only 24 per cent approve, which marks the weakest showing recorded for Ford in this tracker so far.

Liaison principal David Valentin says the pattern is impossible to ignore. He explained the shift plainly:

“Ford’s personal numbers are the bigger problem… Just 24 per cent approve of the job he is doing as Premier. That is the lowest approval and highest disapproval we have measured for Ford in this tracker.”

The poll lands as Ford’s government works through backlash over thousands of dollars in hotel claims filed by PC MPPs. Several of those members live within commuting distance of Queen’s Park, which has fueled public frustration. Ford has since apologized and confirmed the expenses will be repaid.

However, Valentin cautions against assuming the scandal alone caused the drop in support. Instead, he argues it reinforces an already damaging narrative around the premier. In his words:

“When an incumbent premier is already at 24 per cent approval, stories about MPPs billing taxpayers for Toronto hotel rooms are exactly the kind of thing that reinforces a bad frame.”

In addition, broader sentiment about Ontario’s direction looks equally grim for the government. Only 26 per cent of respondents believe the province is headed the right way. Meanwhile, 71 per cent say Ontario is on the wrong track altogether.

Regional Divide Shapes the Ontario Political Landscape

The Ontario Liberals poll lead is not uniform across the province. Instead, the race looks fractured depending on the region, and each party draws strength from different pockets of Ontario.

In Toronto, the Liberals lead clearly with 46 per cent support. The 905 region, however, tells a tighter story, with Liberals and PCs tied at 40 per cent each. Consequently, suburban voters remain firmly up for grabs heading into future contests.

Eastern Ontario leans differently, with the PCs holding a lead at 42 per cent. Meanwhile, the NDP performs strongest in Northern Ontario and South Central Ontario, where neither of the two front-runners dominates. Together, these regional splits suggest no single party has secured a commanding province-wide advantage yet.

Data Centres Emerge as a Key Affordability Issue

Beyond the horse-race numbers, the poll also examined public attitudes toward large data-centre development across Ontario. This issue is becoming an increasingly prominent policy debate, particularly as electricity costs remain top of mind for voters.

The findings show a genuinely split public. About 44 per cent support allowing more large data centres in the province, while 42 per cent oppose the idea. Despite this even split, concern over electricity costs runs high: 73 per cent of respondents believe data centres would raise household electricity bills.

Furthermore, the public appears clear on who should bear the financial burden. A strong 81 per cent say data-centre companies should pay for any required electricity infrastructure themselves. Similarly, 60 per cent say they would back a data centre more readily if it kept Canadian data stored within Canada.

The single biggest condition for public support remains simple. Respondents most frequently cited “no increase to household electricity bills” as their top requirement, at 33 per cent. This suggests affordability, rather than technology itself, drives most of the hesitation.

Valentin connects this affordability concern directly to the broader mood shaping Ontario politics right now. He noted:

“If voters think a project will raise their hydro bill, they want the company — not the household — to pay. That same fairness instinct applies to the expense scandal.”

Therefore, both stories — the data-centre debate and the MPP expense controversy — appear to tap into the same underlying voter instinct. People want fairness in who pays, whether the topic is electricity infrastructure or taxpayer-funded hotel stays.

Methodology and What Comes Next

Liaison Strategies surveyed 1,000 Ontarians using IVR technology for this tracker. Results were then weighted to match 2021 Census targets, ensuring a representative sample across the province.

Given the current numbers, the Ontario Liberals poll lead appears stable for now, though not overwhelming. Ford’s sliding approval, combined with public unease over the expense scandal, creates real pressure on his government. As a result, upcoming polls will likely be watched closely to see whether this trend continues or whether the PCs can stabilize support.

Categories: Analysis, Cities, Data & Insights, Energy, Provinces

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