Canada-Africa trade is at a turning point, and South Africa’s top diplomat in Ottawa says Canada is not moving fast enough to seize it. According to High Commissioner Rieaz Shaik, Ottawa still treats African nations mainly as recipients of aid rather than as fast-growing commercial partners. As a result, Canada risks losing ground to countries that have already built strong economic ties on the continent.

Shaik’s warning comes at a moment when several of Canada’s peers are deepening their footprint in Africa. Meanwhile, Ottawa’s own Africa strategy calls for a shift toward viewing the continent as a series of dynamic markets. However, the High Commissioner argues that shift has not yet translated into action.

A Second-Mover Risk in African Markets

“My criticism of Canada would be that it hasn’t seriously made the transition,” Shaik told The Canadian Press. He believes hesitation now could carry a real cost later, especially as competition for African markets intensifies.

“With all second-movers in any market, you run the risk of not getting into the market — or the market becomes saturated,” he said. In other words, delay is not a neutral choice; it actively narrows Canada’s future options.

Indeed, China, the United Arab Emirates, and several other Western nations have already built closer relationships across the continent. Consequently, these ties could pay dividends for decades, while Canada continues to weigh its next move. The Senate foreign affairs committee raised a similar concern in a report last December, urging Canada to strengthen its foreign service and expand African trade beyond mining alone.

Sequencing the Path to a New Partnership

To reset the relationship, Shaik is pushing for a strategic partnership agreement between Canada and South Africa. Specifically, the deal would target five priority sectors: agribusiness, infrastructure, mining, energy, and advanced technologies. “The objective is to reset the relationship between Canada and South Africa,” he explained.

This partnership would be anchored by an updated foreign investment promotion and protection agreement. Such a pact sets legally binding rules to protect and expand investment flows between the two countries. Canada and South Africa last signed an investment agreement in 1997, and negotiators have spent several years trying to modernize it.

One sticking point remains investor-dispute resolution. Canada favors an international mechanism, whereas South Africa’s constitution requires disputes to go through domestic courts. Still, Shaik downplays the disagreement: “It is more an issue of sequencing rather than issue of substance that divides us,” he said.

If finalized, the new partnership would position South Africa as Canada’s gateway into the rest of southern Africa. Eventually, it could open doors to the African Continental Free Trade Area, which links most of the continent’s economies. In return, Canada would give South Africa a stronger entry point into the United States, Mexico, and Latin America.

“We are both, in our own rights, relatively small markets. But based in our regions, we become significant markets,” Shaik said. This regional framing, therefore, is central to his pitch for closer Canada-Africa trade ties.

Provinces Already Leading the Way

Despite his criticism of federal policy, Shaik singles out Alberta and Saskatchewan for praise. Notably, he pointed to how both provinces have built strong “ecosystems” for industry growth. Three Canadian companies — grain giant AGT Foods, potato producer McCain, and engineering firm Hatch — already operate in South Africa and, according to Shaik, could expand further across the continent with the right market access and support.

In July, a delegation led by South Africa’s deputy foreign minister visited Saskatchewan to study its approach. The province has combined agricultural research with business partnerships and export strategy to maximize crop trade. The delegation also found similar innovation at Alberta’s Olds College.

“Our delegation was really impressed about how outward-going both Alberta and Saskatchewan are, in attracting market interest,” Shaik said. South Africa is now also examining Nova Scotia’s work digitizing health and drug records, which suggests interest extends well beyond agriculture.

Ultimately, Shaik believes Canada has as much to learn from Africa as it does to offer. For instance, he pointed to how African innovations have shifted small payments from cash toward mobile apps. Likewise, bank branches across the continent already help deliver government services and verify identification, including during immigration processing.

Canadian artificial intelligence leaders, Shaik suggested, could pilot new programs in Africa instead of relying so heavily on American capital and scale. “One of the fundamental weaknesses of the Canadian AI industry is that while it develops the intellectual property, to reach scale it has to go to the U.S.,” he said.

Why the Stakes Keep Rising

Prime Minister Mark Carney has set a goal of doubling Canada’s non-U.S. exports within the next decade. According to Shaik, hitting that target will require Ottawa to convince the corporate sector to look beyond Washington. That shift, he suggests, will not happen automatically.

“You have to move Canadian society, and especially the elites in Canada in the financial world,” he said. “Because what we may be dealing with in Canada is the boiling-frog scenario.” His comparison is a pointed one: gradual inaction, he implies, can be just as damaging as an obvious crisis.

Ultimately, Shaik frames the choice as a strategic one rather than an inevitability. Canada can move early and help shape the terms of Canada-Africa trade, or it can wait while other nations do the shaping instead. “I think reality will force it — will force the African continental market into Canada. The only question then is whether Canada would be a first-mover,” he said.

He added a caution for policymakers weighing their options: “It may be strategic for Canada to say that it wants to be a second-mover into the market and let that market be developed by China, by others.” For South Africa, though, the message is clear — the door for closer trade ties remains open, but perhaps not indefinitely.