As the Trump tariff deadline approaches on Aug. 19, Canadian businesses are choosing patience over panic. Rather than rushing shipments across the border to beat the clock, many companies are adopting a strategy industry insiders call “watchful waiting.” The looming threat involves 50 per cent tariffs on nearly US$20 billion worth of Canadian goods, ranging from dairy products to down jackets.

Unlike most of President Donald Trump’s other tariff measures, these new duties would not exempt goods that comply with the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement, widely known as CUSMA. This detail makes the situation especially urgent for exporters who previously relied on trade-pact compliance to avoid extra costs.

Businesses Settle Into a Waiting Game

Janine Harker, president of the Canadian Society of Customs Brokers, says companies have avoided front-loading their shipments despite the looming threat. “For better or for worse, everybody has settled into a process of watchful waiting — and planning to the extent possible, but very much not trying to get too ahead of what actually comes out as the official direction on Aug. 19,” she said.

Meanwhile, businesses continue to track whether the president will follow through on his threats or back down, as he has done before. This pattern has given rise to a popular acronym: TACO, short for “Trump Always Chickens Out.”

John Corey, who heads the Freight Management Association of Canada, expressed a similar sentiment. “We’re getting a little bit blasé. Trump never follows through — TACO,” he said. He pointed to several unfulfilled threats, including the president’s vow late last month “to put a big tariff on Canada because of the smoke,” referring to haze from Canadian wildfires that drifted across the border.

“People are starting to see there’s a lot of bluster, but not much comes of it,” Corey added. He views the White House pronouncements as a negotiating tactic amid an ongoing review of CUSMA. As a result, many shippers see little reason to change their usual routines.

Not Everyone Buys the Bluff

However, not all industry leaders share this skepticism. Alain Bédard, CEO of TFI International Inc., Canada’s largest trucking firm, offered a different view during a recent call with analysts. “The feedback that we’re getting so far is that it will be implemented,” he said.

Despite that uncertainty, Bédard noted little evidence of a behavioural shift among shippers. “We’re not seeing any movement that’s exceptional, like pre-buying or pre-shipping because of the 30-day implementation deadline,” he said on July 27.

He also drew a contrast with earlier tariff scares. “This is not the same as what we’ve seen in Q1 (2025), where everybody was trying to chase volumes into the U.S. prior to tariffs,” Bédard explained. In addition, throughout much of last year, retailers and exporters worldwide rushed to beat shifting American tariff deadlines marked by temporary reprieves and extensions.

Now, Canadian shippers appear more desensitized to the ongoing trade tumult. Consequently, their preparations have shifted toward different priorities, such as assessing the potential financial toll rather than racing the clock.

Businesses Brace for the Worst-Case Scenario

Customs brokers are scrambling to help clients review their products and supply chains. Harker explained that many importers were still working through compliance questions. “Many importers were just getting their heads around whether or not their goods were compliant with the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement,” she said.

Some companies took steps to secure certification under the trade pact. However, for a wide range of products, that compliance could become meaningless within days. This uncertainty has left many businesses in limbo, unsure whether their preparation efforts will matter at all.

For some, numbness toward White House policy shifts has turned into resignation. Dave Pentland, vice-president of Carson International, a licensed customs broker based in Vancouver, has spent recent weeks preparing cost reports for clients facing the “worst-case scenario.”

According to Pentland, about one-fifth of his clients are hurrying to push cargo across the border before Wednesday. The rest, meanwhile, are hoping — or praying — that the deadline serves merely as a bargaining tool rather than a genuine policy change.

Front-loading shipments may seem pointless if a 50 per cent tariff makes exports to the U.S. financially unsustainable. Pentland warned this could wipe out entire segments of business overnight, particularly in vulnerable sectors. “They’d all just stop,” he said, pointing to clients in the garment and paper product industries.

“It’s going to hurt Canada if it goes through,” Pentland added. His concern reflects a broader anxiety spreading through export-dependent industries as the deadline draws near.

The Stakes for Canadian Exporters

Roughly two-thirds of Canada’s approximately $3 billion in annual apparel and textile exports land in the United States, according to the Observatory of Economic Complexity. This heavy reliance on the American market makes the Trump tariff deadline particularly consequential for smaller manufacturers.

Pentland highlighted a specific niche within this industry. “There’s a real niche in Canada for people that import foreign fabric and then they’re able to make the goods qualify under CUSMA,” he said. “That’s a lot of small- and medium-sized companies.”

These businesses often depend on complex supply chains that took years to build. Therefore, any disruption to CUSMA compliance rules could create ripple effects across multiple related industries, not just textiles and apparel.

Trade Talks Continue in Washington

Canada-U.S. Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc and Janice Charette, Canada’s chief trade negotiator, have been in Washington since Monday. Their visit includes discussions and meetings with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, aimed at resolving the dispute before it escalates further.

Greer said Friday that the discussions were “constructive.” However, he added that Canada would have to lift its retaliatory measures in order to avoid new tariffs. This condition suggests negotiations remain far from settled, even as the deadline approaches.

As Aug. 19 nears, Canadian businesses remain caught between cautious optimism and genuine concern. Whether Trump follows through or backs away once again, the uncertainty itself continues to shape how companies plan, invest, and prepare for what comes next.